Showing posts from 2017

My Report Card : 2017

Time flies , we are counting the last two days of 2017 to welcome 2018 and again is time to take stock of the year gone by and make plans for coming year. We try to justify (or made excuses ) of what we didn’t achieve in 2017 and set the new resolutions for 2018.

2017 should be a good year for most of investors as STI gained 18% ( exclude dividend ) and closed at 3402.92. A rising tide lifts all boats , if you have counters like banks , property or electronic manufacturing , your performance should be better than STI as these are the counters rebounded strongly in 2017.

Monetary Authority of S’pore issues bitcoin warning

After warning issued from China, India , Malaysia , Thailand Central bankers , many monetary regulatory seems follow suit and came forward to warn the RISK of investing in it may turn out to become a "systematic risk" which really can create "chaos and havoc " to the financial market/system if it continue to grow at "exponential " rate before it collapse. This could be seen from the total market cap for Bit-coin which is around USD290 BIL ( at supply of close to 16 mil ) , can you imagine if the the total supply achieve full amount of 21 MIL , and if the price hit USD50,000 , what will be the total market cap of Bit-coin ?

The Book I'm Reading Now

I took out this book from my bookshelf recently and re-read it again, with much curiosity, I wanted to find out if I could learn something from past financial crisis and if there is any similarity of past crisis vs recent crazy price movement of Bit-coin. 

I read with great interest especially on Chapter 4 ( Fueling the Flames: Monetary Expansion ).
Quote “ Speculative manias gather speed through expansion of money and credit or perhaps, in some cases , get started because of an initial expansion of money or credit. One can look back at particular manias followed by crash or panic and see what went wrong .“ Unquote

What’s Next After Achieving Financial Freedom?

These 2 blog post from my friend about life after achieving FF prompted me to “ kaypo” and write something about my life after FI since 3 years ago… this is the question where many “F.I.R.E to be” should ponder along the journey of achieving FI. Financial independence is not about being rich but is the experience of having enough….and the most important question people often overlook is “What's Next when you have achieved Financial Independence?”.

How To Spend Your Year End Bonus ?

<This article first appeared in “Seedly” on 13th  Dec 2017 , one of the leading social network for investors who believe that anyone can achieve financial freedom with the right tools and the right mindset .  ( here ) >

Time flies and we are at the end of 3rd Qtr 2017 with Thanks Giving just around the corner and follow by Christmas celebration. I guess most of the investors including me are happy with their investment returns in 2017 as STI is up by 15.2% YTDand if you are the lucky one who have invested in Banking ,Electronic/ Chips Manufacturing stocks and few selected property counters, your returns should be much higher than STI. " Gong Xi-Gong Xi "

Well, most of the employee will also be receiving their Year End Bonus in Dec or early Jan ( if you are not in the industries which is still struggling with “downsizing or right sizing “ as below survey quoted. You may at least get something ….

4th Qtr 2017 : Dividend and Portfolio Update

Is time to see many update from financial bloggers  on their year- end portfolio review  and total dividend to be collected in 2017 , including B (here ) and me of course.

Time flies , as usual with the last company to have announced the financial result , I will try to tabulate the total dividend to be collected in 4ht Qtr 2017 and total amount for full year 2017 vs 2016.
Dividend & Interest Income  for 4th Qtr 2017 = $40,576.95 This is about  $3696 lesser than  4th Qtr last year of $44,273
Total 2017 =  $185,623 vs 2016 of $195,547( down by -$9924 )

Thank You & Good Bye “ CROESUS Retail Trust “

This is the 3rd company in my portfolio being privatized after Sim Lian and ARA Asset Management.  I have blogged about “ The Good or The Bad “ of privatization before (here ).
As I mentioned before “  Whether privatization is good or bad for shareholders, I’m sure it depend on your entry priceand in the eye of beholder.”

Q&A : Bitcoin

What is Bitcoin ?

(from Wikipedia ) Bitcoinis a worldwide cryptocurrency and digital payment system called the first decentralized digital currency, as the system works without a central repository or single administrator. It was invented by an unknown person or group of people under the name Satoshi Nakamotoand released as open-source software in 2009. The system is peer-to-peer, and transactions take place between users directly, without an intermediary. These transactions are verified by network nodes and recorded in a public distributed ledger called ablockchain.

CPF-Investment Scheme – My Experience

CPF-IS has been a hot and never ending topic since DPM Tharman made a comments in 2016 that “the scheme was not fit for purpose “ because over the last 10 years, more than 80 per cent of those who invested through the scheme would have been better off leaving their money in the CPF Ordinary Account.
He said that over the last 10 years, more than 80 per cent of those who invested through the scheme would have been better off leaving their money in the CPF Ordinary Account since the Ordinary account still give member a 2.5% interest.

The Importance of Behavioral Finance in Investment Decisions

Finally , one of my favorite and top Behavioral  EconomistRichard H Thalerfrom University of Chicago won the 2017 Nobel Laureate in Economics , joining other top behavioral economist like Robert J. Shiller and  Daniel Kahneman  in the list of Nobel Laureate.
He has been recognized by many insightful research link to economic decision and psychology like Endowment Effect “ and “ Mental Accounting “ and also a writer of many best-selling books in economics and behavioral finance.

Do We Need to Spend Few Thousand $$$ on Investment Courses ?

One of the reader email me and asking about the idea of attending an investment course which cost him few thousand dollars. I am quite reluctant to give advice in this regards as I never attended any investment course before and not sure about the useful and effectiveness of such courses.
For me , investing is a long learning journey and one need to read extensively and learn from your own mistake not just sitting in the class room for few hours or days ,listening to some “experts “  advise or slides presentation on how to be a successful investor.

The Power of Dividend

In stocks investing , you probably heard about the “ growth stocks “ , “dividend stocks “ , “large cap / mid –cap “ or “ blue chips “ etc .. and depending on your “desired and expectation” of the ROI of your investment , you may choose what kind of stocks to be included in your portfolio.
For most of the investors , I am sure you would have included some “income stocks“ into you portfolio as part of the diversification and also hopefully dividends can keep the value of your investment rising even when market performance sours.

STE Smart Beta Update : 30th Aug 2017

Time flies , It has been more than a year after my first published of STE Smart Beta concept and bench-marking against STI Index.
FYI , I have started my STE Smart Beta on 28th Aug 2016 with capital of $100K with equal weighted investing in 14 stocks which fall under the criteria of PE<10 or Dividend Yield >5%.
You may find the detail in this link (here).

Market Timing Vs Time In The Market ?

There was an article about the important of “Market Timing vs Time in The Market “ by Mr. Goh Eng Yeow ,Senior Correspondent ,The Straits Times on 20th Aug and you may find the detail as below : Beating the investment pros at their game
This is a never ending argument or debate on which is more important ie Timing or Time In the Market , and from most of the articles you read, you may find that most of them are more inclined towards “Time in the Market “ rather than Timing the Market.

3rd Qtr 2017 : Dividend and Portfolio Update

After getting the result announcement from Croesus Retail Trust this morning , all the company I have vested has announced their quarterly result respectively. Is time for me to update my Dividend & Interest income which I will be receiving in 3rd Qtr 2017.  
Total Dividend & Interest Income ( 3rd Qtr 2017 ) = $46,539.36
YTD 2017 Dividend & Interest Income = $146,097.02
The total income receive for this quarter will be much lesser as compared to 2nd Qtr mainly due to absence of biannual dividend income from Accordia G Trust ( around $9K) and Interest income from short term corporate bond (around  $5K) which only be received in 2nd and 4th Qtr respectively.

Investment Clock : What Time Is It ?

Pursuant to my previous blog post about market cycles and “4 Seasons Investing “, there is another way of explaining the market cycles i.e “ Investment Clock “.

The idea of an investment clock has been around for decades and it captures two very important things in investment :  

1) Business and Market move in cycle  2) No sector or asset class exist in isolation or can sustain without being affected by business cycles.

太极生两仪,两仪生四象 : The Tao Of Investing

两仪 编辑 两仪指天地或阴阳。一些武术家借用此词来引申到拳法中,如武术家孙禄堂就将动为阳、静为阴,合称动静为两仪。 关于“两仪”,综合历代易学家的理论,计有七说:一说为阴阳,一说为天地,一说为奇偶,一说为刚柔,一说为玄黄,一说为乾坤,一说为春秋。但通常是指阴阳。

四象 编辑 四象即为:太阳、太阴、少阴、少阳。 而其又名:少阳、老阳、少阴、老阴。 从数学角度论四象为:四、九、八、六。 从方位角度论四象为:东、南、西、北。 从一年季节论四象为:春、夏、秋、冬。 从人的名字论四象为:孟章、执名、监兵、陵光 从飞禽走兽论四象为:青龙、玄武、白虎、朱雀。

Feel Good About Your BULL Market Returns

It has been quite sometimes since my last update of the “Regression Chart “ for STI and world major indexes.
After seeing the chart with latest data , I realized that no wonder everyone seems happy on the ROI of their portfolio and bullish about the market recently as STI hit above 3200 level.

Here you go….

IPO : Tell Me A Story

This year should be a good year for SGX as we           have seen many  IPOs in first half of 2017 and       as for retail investors , many  should be excited          busy pressing button at ATM to apply for the              IPOs ,expecting to have some quick bucks if              successfully being  allocated with some share.

The latest one will be the hottest in the market of “NetLink Trust “ which expected to raise up to $2.6 Bil from the IPO ( detailhere).

Portfolio Construction : To Diversify or Not to Diversify ?

As investors, when we think about Risk-Reward analysis, the first thing pop up in our mind automatically will be the word “ diversification”.  
This is what been mentioned in Investopedia about the importance of Diversification:
"Diversification is a technique that reduces risk by allocating investments among various financial instruments, industries and other categories. It aims to maximize return by investing in different areas that would each react differently to the same event.

1-2-3 To Be A Successful Investor

If you are looking for investing ideas or methods of successful investment , guess you will often hear this in any investment seminars , talks or even encountered this many times in newspaper or blogs , i.e “Investing is simple, not easy” ,the famous quote from our legendary and super-investor Warren Buffet.
As human nature , we like to simplify things which is complicated such as investing into simpleDIY version of 1-2-3.
You may find many articles as below in financial news or portal which simplify the investment ideas or philosophy into point form for easy understanding.
** Please click the underline number if wish to read the full articles and all credit goes to authors of these articles.
2 Important Factors in Finding Winning Investments The 3most important things you need to consider when investing
4 things smart investors look for in annual reportsThe 5 Most Important Factors for Your Investment Success
Warren Buffett Says These Are the 6 Most Important Things You Should Do With You…

1st HF 2017 – Net Worth and Portfolio Review

Had seen many bloggers busy updating their portfolio recently right after the last day of June , allow me to come and join the party.
Thank GOD , there was no market crash in 1st HF of 2017 and in fact STI has outperformed many regional peers with returned of close to 13% YTD ( excluding Dividend Yield of around 3-3.5 % which is also one of the highest among Asian bourses ) .

HPH Trust : 一只让人又爱又恨的蓝筹股

HPH Trust has been one of the worst performer blue chips within the STI Index component. It has created a hype during IPO in 2011 where investors being attracted with high dividend yield and promising growth story of China’s export and full potential of containerization.
But the reality was that, with the increasing and fierce competition from surrounding port along Pearl River Delta , couple with prolong slump in shipping industry in its secular down cycles, the result is reflected in current stock price of -60% down since IPO.

Looking at Stock Market as A “Complex Adaptive System “

One of my favorite book other than “ Game and Chaos Theory “ is this called “ Complex Adaptive Systems : An Introduction to Computational Models of Social Life , by John H. Miller and Scott E. Page “.
What is “ Complex Adaptive System “  and why is it so important to understand the stocks market ? other than “behavioral or psychological “ aspect of market.
We often look at the things or world as “linear “ and has a very clear “cause and effect “ relationship. The bulk of economics studies is based on equilibrium systems: for example, a balance between supply and demand, risk and reward, price and quantity, this view stems from the idea that economics is a science similar to Newtonian physics, with an identifiable link between cause and effect and implied predictability. When the equilibrium system is hit by an exogenous shock, it absorbs the shock and returns to an equilibrium state.

2nd Qtr 2017 : Dividend and Portfolio Update

The last company in my holding “ Accordia Golf Trust “ announced the result and dividend on 25th May while I was still busy catching “Pokemon “ . Is time to calculate and tabulate my dividend & interest income to be received in coming months for 2nd Qtr 2017 .
Total Dividend & Interest Income for 2nd Qtr 2017 = $62,964.11
** Total amount receive still about $972 lower than last year (same period ) due to lower dividend from Accordia Golf Trust which reduced by - $1940.4  ( DPU 4.31 cts in 2nd Qtr 2016 vs 3.59 cts in 2017 ) . *** Most of the REITs and Blue Chips also declaring lower dividends in view of challenging business environment, especially Oil & Gas sectors and Telco. **** Increasing my holding in corporate bond from cash received, resulting an increase of interest income from $465 in 2nd Qtr 2016 to $5102.67 in 2nd Qtr 2017.

STE Smart Beta Update and Photos Sharing

It has been quite sometimes since my last update of STE Smart Beta Index which was created on 28 Aug 2016 ( here) and Yah !! Just for Fun  J
STE SM Index beat the STI Index by just 2 % points and if take into consideration of dividend yield where it has been set higher than STI by around 1.5% , total return could be around 3.5 % .
 I will need to do the portfolio re-balancing in Aug 2017 after 1 year of inception and I think since the market has been very bullishrecently , it has become very difficult to find counters which have PE <10 or Div Yield >5% among STI's components. Base on my observation, total counter should drop to eight only as per current stocks price and market valuation.

A Tale of Diversification ( Part 2 )

In previous blog post , I have shared my experience of diversification into Telcos and O&G industries which is still sitting on paper loss of more than - $12 K (here ). In today’s part 2 , I am going to further elaborate my story of diversification into banking sector since 2016.
Some may still vividly remember that banking stocks has been beaten-down in end 2015 and early 2016 due to market’s projection on slow-down in China’s economy as well as others emerging market ( BRICs ).

A Tale of Diversification ( Part 1 )

As you may notice from my portfolio (here) which is very much skewed toward high yield counters like REITs and Business Trust. I would recognize and think that this is not good  in the long run as asset concentration in just one or two sectors in my portfolio , as such , I try to diversify and accumulate some non-REIT or Business Trust counters when situation allow.
I have picked up some stocks like Telcos , Banks and Conglomerate since 2014 and of course every industries has their cycle and challenges , some of my investment turned out be in lost and some in profit. Always remembers that in any investment,” sometime we win , sometime we lose “ , and business profitability is really unpredictable as market move in cycles.

Do You Look At Management Fee in Selecting Which REIT to Invest ?

We do understand that most of the time, "yield" is the main consideration for investors to invest in REIT and of course other than P/NAV , gearing , interest coverage ratio, asset quality , occupancy rate etc.
Other than normal property expenses such as interest & finance cost and operating expenses , management fee is also the major cost for a REIT.  How often do we really look at the management fees as one of the criteria in selecting a REIT to invest ?

Should You Be Worried About Geopolitical Risk ?

European markets and Dow Futures seems celebratingon the news of today’s French Presidential Election result. FTSE , DAX and CAC 40 all up by 2-4% at the time writing and Dow Future also up by more than 200 points. 
Recently, investors seems given more concerns to geopolitical issues where it has dominated the market movebase on their preliminary or final results , since BREXIT referendum on June 2016 and follow by US Presidential Election on Nov 2016.

I Read therefore I Write : Next Financial Crisis May Cause by ETF

On 19th April , The Business Time published an article on issues related to ETF , “ Vanguard is growing faster than everybody else , combined !! “.
No doubt , ETF which is tracking indexes from all over the world is getting so popular because of lower cost as compare to active management.
“In the last three calendar years, investors sank USD$823 billion into Vanguard Funds , by any measure , these are staggering figures. Vanguard’s asset under management have skyrocketed to USD4.2 trillion from USD 1 trillion seven years ago. “ according to the company.

What I Learned From These Two Blog Posts

You might have noticed that the frequency of me updating my blog post has reduced recently. 
Yah .. I have been busy catching “Pokemon” and running around many parks which I never or have no time to explore before during full time working . 
 Places like “ MacRitchie Reservoir “ ,” Woodland Water Front Park” , “West Coats Park” , Fort Canning Park “ , Changi Village “ , “ Bishan-Ang Moh Kio Park “ and of course the usual “ Garden By the Bay and East Coast Park”..etc.

Believe me , money or even after achieving financial freedom have nothing to do with “ Happiness"

Happiness is not about how much money you have , it is "not a state of being or having but it is a state of mind and mentality" .

There is no guide, no rules, no manual that will teach you how to live a “happy” life and of course there are advice or books that can teach you how to approach certain situations to gain the best result. 
Happiness is not determined by what's happening around you, but rather what'…
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