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Expecting "Santa Claus Rally " in 2018 , No ?

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Christmas is just around the corner and some of us may be busy doing the Christmas Sales shopping to buy gift or present for your loved one and some may be "worry ", looking on the screen seeing DJ dropped by few hundred points each day.

Yes, guess there will be no so called "Santa Claus Rally" this year as market expected to be in volatile mood and swing viciously.

Santa Claus Rally( from Investopedia.com)
More than half of S&P 500 stocks are now in a bear market( from MarketWatch.com)
Although US market has corrected by more than -12% from the peak in early 2018 but is still far from long term mean level and not to mentioned about crisis level.

Bye Bye M1 : Catching A Falling Knife

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Finally , I have completely sold all my remaining share of M1 at lost of -$14,226.78 , while some might still waiting or hoping for a better counter-offer from another major shareholder. Yes it is a negative XIRR of -5.5% after close to 4 years of investing.
Have to admit that I have underestimated the impact of "regulatory risk " after the government  announced the new permit for 4th Telco and the subsequent disruption from severe "price war" not even the start of operation of 4th Telco.  Share price of all the Telco dropped by more than 40-50% from the peak since after the announcement of possible 4th telco in 2015 and confirmation of successful bidding of NESA from TPG Telecom of Australia in Dec 2016.

4th Quarter 2018 : Dividend and Portfolio Update

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Yeah !! Is time to update my dividend & interest income to be collected in 4th Qtr 2018. This will be a short and quick update as I am heading to JB for 2 nights staycation on 20th & 21st Oct and follow by another on 25th & 26th Oct to Lexis Hibiscus Port Dickson . From now till January 2019 it will be quick pack for me as school holidays just started and will have more fun and spend more time on outdoor activities with my kids , as usual like rock climbing and ice-skating or even planing to climb "Bukit Timah Hill Summit" ,,, yah Singapore's " Mount Everest ".

Hold Your "F.I.R.E" , Your Dividend Has Just Been Cut By 81.5% !!

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Yes, not by -8 % or -38% but -81.5% !! This is what happened when APPT (Asian Pay TV Trust) announced their result and dividend pay out for next quarter this morning.

I think most of the so called " income investors " (including me)  were stunned by this sudden news and of course the share price dropped by -49.2% and closed at $0.16 today. I still have small position of this stock in my portfolio ( 0.4% ) and expected it (dividend) to be cut by 50% to around 3 cts which is a more sustainable level level and close it's FCF and may still gave us a approx 10% yield  at price of 30+ cts . Although it just a small position , but sitting with such huge "paper loss "now is no joke and a real painful lesson learned, I am sure those vested will have the same feeling.

Is Winning the Lottery Cursed?

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Winning the lottery can be a huge, life-changing event. Imagine you'd just won few millions $$ from TOTO and not to forget the probabilityof an ordinary S$1 bet winning the jackpot  is 1 in 13,983,816chance. You must be “damn lucky “ in winning the TOTO but what happen to your life after receiving such big “windfall “.

Will your life change better or worse, according to a study , “Lottery winners, despite overwhelming odds, are a rare few to win millions on the turn of a dime. Many are simple people just struggling to get by. Having their financial concerns suddenly vanish must feel good. However, there’s a darker side to winning the lottery. Many winners end up worse off than they were before, broke, deeper in debt, divorced, or worst of all, dead. Like the old saying goes, more money, more problems.
I am not so sure about Singapore’s case as no study been made on past lottery winner, but from below articles ,it seems that there is so called “ Lottery Cursed “.

Worrying Too Much About Stock Market Fluctuation

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I know we worry about myriad of issues concerning stocks market because it affects our portfolio value day in day out. Our heartbeat increase when we look at the news headlines about “ trade war “ , “Interest rate increase “ , “ EM slow down” , “US Mid-term election” , “Sanction on Iran “ etc.. But should we press our panic button to “ buy or sell” every time we saw these news headlines which cause the market to fluctuate up and down ?
Read this before you make a hasty act on trading your stocks base on “ News Headlines “.
Buy American. I Am. By WARREN E. BUFFETTOCT. 16, 2008

DOW .. Down ..Down.. Up ..Up...

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Today mark the last trading day of Oct 2018 , Yes ! Indeed , it's a "choppy and volatile" month for STI and world markets. DJ could swing more than 600 points intra-day from positive to negative. Well , that is really the characteristic of "Mr Market", it swing like a pendulum.

Again, many of my friends are asking me if I am selling my stock as market seems very volatile and 'risky" ( for them ) , but my answer to them is the same , "No" , I am not selling but just do some "portfolio reshuffling " on some of my holdings ( which I will update more in my next Dividend and Portfolio Update).  In view of such "crazy market " , some might be thinking of getting out of market and holding 100% in cash. I am not so sure if this is a wise move , of course if one could avoid the "40 days with biggest losses" from the market , he/she could really achieve an "extraordinary" result, but in reality , can we really d…

Has The Fed Really “Gone Crazy” ?

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Yes, this was what President Trump said after Federal Reserve’s recent rise in interest rate and signals for more to come which has caused the recent “market rout” where world major indexes dropped by more than 5-8% in two days including most of the Asian’s stock market. 
I am sure you have been bombarded by all sort of news headlines on “Market Crash “ or even active discussion about share price dropped or portfolio value decreased among your chart group.
Dow plunges more than 800 points in worst drop since February, Amazon and tech shares lead the rout( from CNBC.com)

OMG !! October : The Month of Market Crashes

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Do some months have significantly different stock market returns than others? I am not so sure, but many investors belief that October will be the bad month for stock markets and January will be better with higher than average return.
 Is it true that we can time the market base on calendar months like “Sell in May and go away “ ,buy in December for Santa Claus Rally “ and  January Effect etc…which sometimes may refer to as Calendar Effect”.(link)

M1: Pre-Conditional Voluntary GO at $2.06

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有人欢喜有人愁
If there's one issue dominating the business headlines these days, it's definitely the " Keppel and SPHto buy rest of M1; Keppel to privatise Keppel T&T ". ( from The Business Times)
Depending on what was your entry price and average cost , some may make money at this offer price and some may still losing money. I am the one belongs to the second group as my average cost is well above $2.06. This is a typical “Buy High Sell Low “ case as I have decided to sell some at around $1.53- $1.59 , 2 weeks ago.By hindsight , I should have keep these stocks or buy some more to average down my cost … hahaha .

Asset Bubble : From Tulipmania to Bitcoin

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“ An economic bubble or asset bubble (sometimes also referred to as a speculative bubble, a market bubble, a price bubble, a financial bubble, a speculative mania, or a balloon) is trade in an asset at a price or price range that strongly exceeds the asset's intrinsic value

It could also be described as a situation in which asset prices appear to be based on implausible or inconsistent views about the future. Asset bubbles date back as far as the 1600s and are now widely regarded as a recurrent feature of modern economic history. Historically, the Dutch Golden Age's Tulipmania (in the mid-1630s) is often considered the first recorded economic bubble.” From Wikipedia.com

3453 Days !!

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Hi , don’t say STE never give “kang-tao” or tips , you know what this number meant for right ! Hahaha... just kidding.
Congratulation ! for those who have invested in US market , especially those in tech sectors like FANGs .
Yes !!
IT’S OFFICIAL: The bull market in stocks is now the longest ever. Here are the 4 main reasons it broke the record. (Link) ·The equity bull market is now the longest on record, at 3,453 days. ·The benchmark S&P 500 has surged a whopping 323% over the period. ·As traders celebrate the feat, they have four main drivers to thank: earnings growth, share buybacks, extended monetary accommodation, and a buy-the-dip mentality.

The Sacrifice We Made To Obtain $1.5 Mil of Dividend

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My last post on “ 3rd Qtr 2018 :Dividend and Portfolio Update” draw much attention as how we would be able to accumulate $1.5 mil of dividend without support from family and purely by ourselves. Some readers sent me e-mail asking how we did that and some with complement and kind words, which I really appreciate.
My friend LP ( BULLy The BEAR ) suggested that I should write another follow up post to highlight how much we have sacrificed in order to obtain such amount of dividend we have today. Another friend of mine B (A Path to Forever Financial Freedom ) even help me to think of the title of this blog post . Hahaha…
With this short supplemental notes , I hope to provide a more “balance and holistic” view on how we would be able to achieve what we have today and what were the sacrifice we made or need to be done in order not to give wrong impression to readers that it is easy to achieve this.

3rd Qtr 2018 : Dividend and Portfolio Update

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YES !! Is time to calculate and tabulate my dividend & interest income for 3rd Qtr 2018 ( $$$ to be collected in month of Jul to Sep). I am happy to see some other bloggers have started to show how much dividend they will be collecting, it’s really encouraging to see some had seen their dividend amount increased much on Y.o.Y basis and I’m not sure if this is also kind of “Nudge “linkas what Uncle CW8888 mentioned that this (by showing our dividend amount from fellow bloggers) could act as “nudge” for others / readers to save and invest in the long run.

The Difference Between a Stock's Value and Price

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Value is a better measure for investors while price matters more to traders
We, the so called “value investors” often find ourselves trying to resolve the differences between a stock's value and its price. If you have spent any time investing in the stock market, you will know that value and price are two different measures arrived at by different means but most of the time we might confuse and mixing up “price as value”.

Spending $XxK on Investment Courses: What Makes a Great Investor? Nature vs. Nurture

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Singapore-based 8i Holdings seems to lack investing nous it espouses(Link)


This news headline in The Business Time  dated 31st Jul 2018 really caught my attention as I wonder if value investing is a result of “nature or nurture “. Can someone paying few thousand dollars to attend the so-called “ Value Investing Courses “ be able to practice what they teach and beat the market by getting Alphaor be beaten by Betaeventually. ( Link :Alpha , Beta , Smart Beta )

Mr. Market : 市场如天空,变幻无穷。。。。莫测

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I really enjoy the beauty of sky every morning or evening whenever I look up the sky from my living room….. these photos were taken from my house in the morning or evening.
Like skies , Mr. Market’s mood swingsdays and nights or minutes by minutes ….
Below quoted fromWarren Buffett’s Letter to Berkshire HathawayShareholders in 1987.

HYFLUX : 成也 新加坡, 败也 新加坡

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In last’s week’s Town-Hall meeting, in a distressed and disappointed mood, Hyflux"s CEO said that “ it was ironic that she built Hyflux and made it a success business story started from Singapore and yet fail because of Singapore’s project ( Tuaspring Integrated Water & Power Project -Link).
The Town-hall meeting was attended by almost 600-700 retail investors ( mostly retirees), with one reported to have invested more than $250,000 in 4.25% Perps Bond and also 200 plus MTN holders in early session.

Have You Been Nudged Today ?

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Have you been nudged?(  Link ) from BBC.com)


<In probably the most well-known example, spillage around the toilet, an age old problem for at least half of the human race, was cut by -80% using an ingeniously simple  intervention.>


The 2017 Nobel Prize in Economics was awarded to Professor Richard Thaler for his contributions to behavioural economics. Prof Thaler's work essentially questions the economic dogma of the so-called "rational man" as defined by classical economic theory, who makes decisions based on weighing the additional benefits against the additional costs of every single option.

Animal Spirit : We are all subject to irrationality

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John Maynard Keynes in 1933 Animal spirits is the term John Maynard Keynes used in his 1936 book The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money to describe the instinctsproclivities and emotions that ostensibly influence and guide human behavior, and which can be measured in terms of, for example, consumer confidence. It has since been argued that trust is also included in or produced by "animal spirits".
Even apart from the instability due to speculation, there is the instability due to the characteristic of human nature that a large proportion of our positive activities depend on spontaneous optimism rather than mathematical expectations, whether moral or hedonistic or economic.  Most, probably, of our decisions to do something positive, the full consequences of which will be drawn out over many days to come, can only be taken as the result of animal spirits—a spontaneous urge to action rather than inaction, and not as the outcome of a weighted average of quantitativ…

Patience Is Your Biggest Investment Asset

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One of my reader ask me what am I doing since market has gone down by more than -10% from early May, am I buying or selling ? My answer is "No" , I don’t do any major adjustment on my portfolio , except nimble a little bit here and there with the dividend I received. Basically, my war-chest remained same in term of percentage in my portfolio.
For me, I don’t think it is compelling for me to do major adjustment on my portfolio at this point of time , although the STI Index has corrected by more than -10%, but it sitting just at long term mean level.

What happen to Genco while SP Power is making close to 1 Billion per year ?

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Disclaimer : I am a Hyflux N2H ( 6% CPS ) holder , my view may carry some biases towards company I have vested. As I said in my previous blog post , we shouldn't blame anyone for lost incurred in our investment except ourselves.
Electricity tariffs to rise by 6.9% for July-September period( from channelnewsasia.com - 29th June 2018)

This is what caught my attention and I think this will further contribute to better bottom line of SP power ….. Yes , SP Power is making close to $900 mil per year( Base Annual Report from SP Power – here ) and all the Genco are bleeding and in red of more than -$357 Mil in 2016 ( I’m sure it will be much more than this figure in 2017 and some estimated it could be close to $1 Bil )





While :
“Singapore's power generation sector has a total capacity of 13,350 megawatts (MW). Peak demand, however, averaged only 7,000 MW in the year to March 2017, leaving a spare capacity of 48 per cent in the system.” Quote from Businesstimes.com.sg , 09 Apr 2017.
Economi…

What to buy ?

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Market looks more volatile in June and STI was down by almost -5% since beginning of June , there may be some truth about "Sell in may and go away"...some might have started to deploy their war-chest to buy stocks listed in their "watch list" which have hit their so call "target price".

Ops ! I am not going to talk about buying stocks in current market condition here today, which I also think that there might be some "value " started to appear but definitely not in "crisis mode" that offer "great bargain " . What I would like write about today is " Buy Experiences ! "

You may notice that I didn't blog much in June as we got to spend more time with kids since it's school holidays. We have our staycationed at one of the hotel resort in JB and also some other activities in Singapore like "rock climbing " , "Bounce Singapore " , "movie time "etc...of course went back to my hometown…
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