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Predicting the Market and Setting An Annual Return Target

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We all want to know what happens next One of the most natural things for an investor to do at the beginning of every year is to look ahead and ask a very simple question: where will the market be by the end of the year? We want to know whether the STI will rise, whether Hong Kong stocks will finally recover, whether the US market can continue its rally, whether interest rates will fall or rise, and whether China will eventually return to stronger economic growth. Once we have made our market forecast, it is quite natural to go one step further and set a target for our own portfolio. Perhaps we tell ourselves that we should make 10 percent this year, 15 percent next year, or maybe even 20 percent if we are feeling more optimistic. There is nothing wrong with having expectations, and I do not think investors should completely stop thinking about the future. The problem begins when we start believing that the future can be predicted with much more accuracy than it actually can. After many...
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My 30 Year Investment Journey in 1 Chart and 5 Keywords

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Sometimes one chart tells a better story than many pages of numbers. The chart above shows my quarterly dividend and interest income since I started investing almost 30 years ago. The blue bars represent the income received in each quarter, while the red area represents the cumulative amount collected over the years. When I first started, the numbers were very small. A few hundred dollars of dividend income in a year did not look significant. There were also many years when progress seemed painfully slow. Yet, as time passed, the effect became more obvious. The quarterly income gradually increased, and the cumulative income curve became steeper. Looking at this chart today, I do not really see money. I see time. I see mistakes made during different market cycles. I see the Asian Financial Crisis, the dot com bubble, the Global Financial Crisis, the European debt crisis, the China slowdown, COVID, wars, Geopolitical tensions, inflation, interest rate shocks and many other periods when i...
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The Mind Behind the Investing

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The Human Side of Investing If you spend enough time looking at stock charts or scrolling through financial news, it’s easy to think investing is all about numbers. We’re often told that if we just analyse a bit more, find that one hidden insight, or build a better valuation model, we’ll eventually figure it all out and succeed. But after years in the market, watching banks' stocks / REITs go up and down, seeing solid blue-chip companies stumble, and witnessing the rise and fall of countless “next big things”, you start to realise it’s not that simple. Investing isn’t just about math. It’s really a test of your mindset and discipline. The numbers are just the scoreboard. The real challenge happens in your head. It’s about how you react when your portfolio drops 20%, or whether you can resist chasing a “sure win” just because everyone around you is talking about it. This is where things get tricky. Often, the right decision feels uncomfortable, and the easy or “logical” choice turns...
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