The "Untold Story" of My Decision to F.I.R.E at Age 45

What make me want to stop working in the midst of high career path and promising career advancement? You don’t suddenly woke up and walked into your boss room, tender your resignation letter and saying that you want to R.E (retire early) although you have achieved F.I and unless you have other plan like setting up your own business or helping family to run the business etc. First of all , allow me to share few good blog-posts onF.I and R.Eand some misconception of people about F.I.R.E before telling the "untold story" about my decision to R.E . As I mentioned before , to achieve F.I is a must and should be our ultimate goal , whereas to decide whether to have early retirement or not is very personal and depends on individual's wish and circumstances, R.E is just an option.

This Is The Fastest Bear !! 2020

We have experienced the fastest and furious " Bear" ever in market history. It only took less than 20 days for Dow Jones Index to reach bear market ( i.e corrected more than 20% from the peak).

This is the situation we never experience even in GFC 2008/09. We have seen some of the REITs dropped in double digits % continuously in few days and we can see that most of the REITs are having 50% sales now.

The ( Covid-19) BEAR is Here ! Run , Hide , Escape or Get Caught !!

Nothing last forever, everything moves in cycle like four seasons, we have a rough and roller coastal ride on our stocks market in last two weeks.  World stocks market finally succumbed to this “deadly and widely spread Covid-19 “ pandemic and most of it enter bear market territory in just two weeks of continuous & severe plunging. The magnitude of the fall accelerated by the “tumbled “ of oil price due to OPEC’s failure to come to an agreement on supply cut, it doesn’t help during this low demand situation due to Covid-19 pandemic, a kind of double whammy impact.

Howard Marks says " it's OK to do some buying...things are cheaper", But not "All In" Yet

Just to share some interesting quotes /wisdom from Howard Marks latest memo as below:

 "Buy, sell or hold? I think it’s okay to do some buying, because things are cheaper.But there’s no logical argument for spending all your cash, given that we have no idea how negative future events will be.  What I would do is figure out how much you’ll want to have invested by the time the bottom is reached – whenever that is – and spend part of it today.  Stocks may turn around and head north, and you’ll be glad you bought some.  Or they may continue down, in which case you’ll have money left (and hopefully the nerve) to buy more.  That’s life for people who accept that they don’t know what the future holds."

1st Quarter 2020 : Dividend and Portfolio Update

OK , my “little bear” finally wake up after many years of hiding / hibernating in the jungle. Ah ! You still can’t really see him “roaming or running “ around as he just “peeping “ out from the woods once awhile.
Market suddenly realize the “danger” and impact of COVID-19 to our economy as a whole and some industries specifically. Demand for certain industries like hospitality, aviation, retail, transportation and oil will be severely impacted due to lockdown and quarantine measures taken to contain the virus.
It was a terrible week for the US stock market ( and Asia Stocks markets to some extent) . The three major stock indexes posted their worst weekly percentage drops since the financial crisis, as coronavirus fears mount. Dow drops more than -1000 points in few consecutive days.

Where Is My “ Bear “ ?

Fear ? No More
You may notice that market continue to perform well , rebounded strongly after 1 or 2 days blip and dip crisis after crisis. US and European stock indices closed at record highs, while their Hong Kong and Chinese counterparts built on a rebound, as investors calmed their nerves over the new coronavirus outbreak that has swept across Asia.
Even in previous Iran-US geopolitical conflict, market also look very calm.
Trade war – no fear , Iran-US Geopolitical crisis – no fear , COVID-19 Coronavirus Crisis –no fear

Rational Irrationality : From Stock Market to Supermarket

Same as investors , peoples act irrationally during crisis or pandemic , we panic selling our "equity " in stock market and buying " rice or toilet papers " in supermarket, both have similarity.

Understanding Investor Behavior<>

Be focused , stay calm ( safe ) during this crisis / pandemic. Have a plan and long term view of your investment horizon , don't act "irrationally " during this period of time by "stocking up" your toilet papers or selling your stocks which still have strong fundamental. Instead , as I blogged before ( link) , crisis could be an opportunities if you have a plan in place and buy the good fundamental stocks during crisis where price have plummeted irrationally.

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