HPH Trust : 一只让人又爱又恨的蓝筹股



<Image  credit to seatrade-maritime.com>


HPH Trust has been one of the worst performer blue chips within the STI Index component. It has created hype during IPO in 2011 where investors being attracted with high dividend yield and promising growth story of China’s export and full potential of containerization.

But the reality was that, with the increasing and fierce competition from surrounding port along Pearl River Delta, couple with prolong slump in the shipping industry in its secular down cycles, the result is reflected in the current stock price of -60% down since the IPO.


The business also badly affected by the shipping line’s action to deploy ships direct to other new ports ( from Xiamen to Ningbo ) which reduce the transhipment volume tremendously.


By hindsight , this is a classic case of “value trap “ if one just based on “dividend yield “ as an indicator to buy.

image credit to Investing Note.com




My Trade on HPH Trust


As you may see from my portfolio that I like : D ( Dividend ) very much and most of the stocks in my portfolio are having decent dividend yield. Hence, I myself have fallen into such a “value trap “ by investing in HPH since 2012.  I have done few trades on this counter and still end up with lost of -$7,409.99 in invested capital before taking into consideration of dividend received.

Below is my trade detail of HPH :






With XIRR of 3.7% (including dividend ), I think this is like just matching long term bond rate and can’t even beat the CPF SA rate and I am sure many investors who have same experience as me that end up with a meagre return or even worse still with loss till date.

I am happy with my divestment that still generates a positive return at the end of the day and will take advantage of some short term trading if the price drop drastically which may see value emerge due to oversold.

FYI, both DBS and OCBC are having similar price target of USD0.42 with “ Hold “ rating. ( you may find the detailed analysis  here )

Do you have this so-called “ blue chip “ in your portfolio ? and what is your YTD return or even target price to cut loss or take profit?


Cheers !!


 Quote Of The Day:



“There is no such thing as a “Value Trap”. There are investing mistakes. “ by Mohnish Pabrai

Comments

  1. Cory22 June 2017 at 21:09

    3.7% still pretty good at a dismay situation ! Better than the Bank or lose money in UT.
    Worst still to SCAM. :)

    ReplyDelete
  2. STE22 June 2017 at 22:11

    Hi Cory..yah ! That's true. ..better than those you mentioned..also..in stocks investing..sometimes we win ..sometimes loss. ." bo bao jia" one..hahaha :)
    Cheers!!

    ReplyDelete
  3. ThinkNotLeft14 August 2020 at 10:33

    Just curious. Would u consider buying HPH trust today?

    ReplyDelete
  4. STE20 August 2020 at 16:04

    Hi ThinkNotLeft,
    I will still prefer not to invest in HPH even at current price , although I might be wrong as value may emerge with such low price.
    I would prefer companies with more diversify ports portfolio like China Merchant Port or Cosco Shipping Port , which have more terminal across different region.
    HPH only have terminal in South China (Pear River Delta) , and these port are facing very stiff competition from other operators ..event shipping line itself (like Maersk Line ) is also having their own terminal in Nansha area.

    With such competition and rising cost , I think they will have pressure to maintain their margin...also with struggling shipping lines or carrier continue , is hard for them to get better tariff from them.
    Above just my own observation and thinking ...i might be wrong.
    Cheers !

    ReplyDelete

Post a Comment

Related Posts Plugin for WordPress, Blogger...

Labels

Show more

This Month's Top Blog Posts

A Misconception About Investing Risk and Market Volatility

Image
  Volatility ≠ Risk When it comes to investing, there’s a big misconception that volatility equals risk. It’s something you hear all the time in the financial world—news headlines flash with “market volatility,” analysts fret over fluctuating stock prices. Many investors start to panic the moment they see red on their portfolios. But for those of us who take a long-term, value-focused approach, we know that volatility is not something to fear. In fact, volatility is our friend. Remember as I always mentioned: Crisis = Danger + Opportunities 危机 = 危险 + 机会   What Is Volatility, Really? Volatility is basically how much and how quickly the price of a stock or asset moves up and down over a given period. It’s typically measured by the standard deviation of returns—yes, all that maths stuff you might have learned in finance class. But don’t get too caught up in technical terms. Volatility just means the price is bouncing around more than usual. Now, many see thi...
Read more

Portfolio & Dividend Update : 4th Aug 2024

Image
 Wow! Time flies as my last blog post has been almost 6 months. As we reach the midpoint of 2024, the stock market presents a mixed bag of opportunities and challenges. The landscape has evolved significantly since the beginning of the year, reflecting a complex interplay of economic indicators, geopolitical events, and corporate earnings. Investors are navigating a market that is both promising and unpredictable , shaped by ongoing adjustments in monetary policy, fluctuating inflation rates, and shifting global dynamics. The first half of 2024 has seen notable volatility in the stock market. After a strong start, equities have experienced fluctuations due to a variety of factors. The market has been moving like a pendulum swing since early of the year and we have started to see some pullback in the last two weeks due to economic uncertainty. I guess the market is just trying to find an excuse (weaker job data/ PMI / consumer confidence) to have such a correction, which I think ...
Read more

Portfolio & Dividend Update : 3rd Qtr 2023

Image
  Higher For Longer   The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady in the recent FOMC meeting, while also indicating it still expects one more hike before the end of the year and fewer cuts than previously indicated next year. In addition to holding rates at relatively high levels, the Fed is continuing to reduce its bond holdings through the so-called QT , a process that has cut the central bank balance sheet by some $815 billion since June 2022 . The Fed is allowing up to $95 billion in proceeds from maturing bonds to roll off each month, rather than reinvesting them. The “ dot plot ” chart from the latest FOMC meeting showed a much higher and longer rate till 2026 and this has “spooked” the market, causing some reactions and pulling down of market indexes last week. “Chair Powell and the Fed sent an unambiguously hawkish higher-for-longer message at today’s FOMC meeting,” wrote Citigroup economist Andrew Hollenhorst. “The Fed is projecting inflation to steadily co...
Read more

2023 Portfolio & Dividend Update

Image
  A Rollercoaster Ride I know, Uncle was really late to have this 2023 performance review as we are already in February 2024 😊 . Pai-seh, I was busy with a family trip to Korea followed by a Cruise Trip onboard RCL. Also, during the school holidays, we went a few times short trips to Malaysia and back to my hometown. My younger daughter got her O Level result followed by searching and applying for JC. That’s why I have been delaying this update and dragging my feet to write this blog post. I think most of us had the same feeling that 2023 was a challenging yet dynamic period for investors, marked by a series of unpredictable events that significantly affected our returns. I have seen my portfolio up by more than 10% in the early part of the year and it dropped by more than -8 % at one time and recovered slightly better at the end of the year with +2.3% (including dividend). As an investor, navigating through such a volatile market requires adaptability, patience, resilience,...
Read more

1st Qtr 2018 : Dividend and Portfolio Update

Image
image credit Izquotes.com Is time to calculate our dividend income for 1 st Qtr 2018 as the financial result for most of the company should have been announced by this time. The market has gone through like a “ roller coaster “ ride in 1 st Qtr 2008 where it was down by almost 10% at one point and rebounded subsequently. As I mentioned in my early blog post ( here ), even with correction of 10-20% from the current high in the US market, I would consider it still as “ expensive or rich in valuation “ and normal correction in any market cycles.
Read more