STE's Stocks Investing Journey

image credit to asymmetryobservation.com Would like to share this great article on the subject of “ Regression to Trend/Mean”: Regression to Trend: Another Look at Long-Term Market Performance <from www.advisorperspective.com>     “About the only certainty in the stock market is that, over the long haul, over performance turns into under-performance and vice versa. Is there a pattern to this movement? Let's apply some simple regression analysis (see footnote below) to the question. Below is a chart of the S&P Composite stretching back to 1871 based on the real (inflation-adjusted) monthly average of daily closes. We're using a semi-log scale to equalize vertical distances for the same percentage change regardless of the index price range.”

I have done less transaction in 1st Qtr 2019 vs 1st Qtr 2018 although the market has gone up much from the low recorded at the end of last year  In line other with world stocks market, STI also performed well in 1st Qtr, up by +8.02% to 3315  as of writing and my portfolio managed to outperformed market by few % points with ROI of +12% YTD, mainly due to better performance from REITs. Five Best-Performing S-REITs Average 20% Total Return in YTD   <from SGX.com>

Christmas is just around the corner and some of us may be busy doing the Christmas Sales shopping to buy a gift or present for your loved one and some may be "worry ", looking on the screen seeing DJ dropped by few hundred points each day. Yes, guess there will be no so-called " Santa Claus Rally " this year as the market expected to be in a volatile mood and swing viciously. Santa Claus Rally ( from Investopedia.com ) More than half of S&P 500 stocks are now in a bear market   ( from MarketWatch.com) Although the US market has corrected by more than -12% f rom the peak in early 2018 but is still far from long term mean level and not to mentioned about crisis level.

One of my readers ask me what am I doing since the market has gone down by more than -10% from early May, am I buying or selling? My answer is "No", I don’t do any major adjustment on my portfolio, except nimble a little bit here and there with the dividend I received. Basically, my war-chest remained the same in term of percentage in my portfolio. For me, I don’t think it is compelling for me to do major adjustment on my portfolio at this point of time, although the STI Index has corrected by more than -10% , but it sits just at long term mean level.

image credit to youtube.com I hope stock market will crash tomorrow !! Hey! wait a minute ( ちょっと待って) , don’t throw rotten eggs or curse at me !! J Here is my story …. Every stock market investor knows the old adage: Buy low, sell high . We often hear this in investment courses or seminars we had attended, even in the financial blogosphere. We talked about “ Price is what you pay, value is what you get “, we wanted to buy cheap at best “bargain “ and high M.O.S ( margin of safety ).

DJ falls more than 1000 points !! STI sinks more than 100 points !! Nikkei 225 plunges more than 1000 points . You will see such a news headline on every major financial news portal in the last 2 days. Well, finally the long-awaited market correction is here and is quite normal to have a market correction of -5 to -15% in any market cycle especially when we have experienced such long bull market since GFC in 2008. We must always remember that market is about “ psychology “ and full of “euphoria and panic “ from time to time…