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Showing posts with the label Regression to mean

Trends Have No End, Only Cycles

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Having spent so many years navigating the ups and downs of the stock market, I am more convinced than ever that equity investing boils down to just two words: market cycles. <Image credit: Fidelity Investment> There is no such thing as permanent value in the stock market; there are only shifting trends that take turns dominating different periods. What was highly sought after yesterday won't necessarily stay in the limelight today, and the "bad stock" that nobody wants right now doesn't mean it won't have its day to shine tomorrow. The future of a stock is always an unknown variable. Think back to a few years ago when the world was trapped in a super low-interest-rate environment. Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) were the absolute darlings of local Singaporean investors. Back then, who didn't have their portfolio packed to the brim with REITs? High dividend yields and stable cash flows made them look like the ultimate safe haven. All blogs, YT ch...

Stock Market: The Art and Science of Regression to Mean

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 Hi, everyone ! It’s me again, back with another deep dive into the fascinating world of stock markets and investing. Today, we’re exploring a concept that’s like the heartbeat of the stock market : regression to the mean . Think of it as the market’s way of finding balance, much like the ebb and flow of tides along seashores or the predictable shift of seasons. Markets go up, they go down, they swing wildly at times, but over the long haul, they tend to settle back to a baseline (or so-called regression to the mean) . Let’s unpack this idea, explore its historical roots, and determine how we can apply it to make more informed investment decisions. What Is Mean Reversion, and How Do Investors Use It?   <source:Investopedia.com>   How Applying Regression To The Mean Can Improve Investment Performance   <source:Forbes.com> The Cyclical Nature of Markets   Markets, like so many things in life, move in cycles. Picture the economy, credit flows, o...

Walking the Portfolio Path: A Lesson in Total Portfolio Management

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 Hi everyone ! It’s me again , back with another reflection on this marathon we call investing. Today, I would like to talk about something close to my heart— portfolio management . Too often, I see folks (and I’ve been guilty of this myself) zooming in on the daily price ticker of a single stock, feeling stressed and anxious when one of our holdings takes a dive. It’s human nature , isn’t it? We watch that one stock plummet 10% in a day, and suddenly, the world feels like it’s crashing down. But here’s the thing I’ve learned over the years: that’s not the full picture. Investing isn’t about one stock’s wild ride, it’s about managing the whole portfolio , like tending a garden with different plants blooming and wilting at their own pace. Let’s step back for a moment. Stock corrections happen. Businesses don’t move in a straight line upward; they ebb and flow with their industries, economies, and market sentiments. Some days, your REITs might be dragging their feet while your blue-...
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