STE's Stocks Investing Journey

image credit to the straitstimes.com This might be my last blog post in 2016 and at this point of time, is very common to see many articles appeared in newspaper or magazine on peoples ( or so-called experts/economist) writing about “Outlook “ for stocks market, property market, economy, industrial, sectors etc… If you key in the “ outlook 2017 “ in Google, you will get 132 mil results about this topic !! Since the ancient world or mankind history, we like to do prediction and lookout for something which may affect our life. People have always yearned to see into the future, to peek around the corner and make sense of what’s going on .

The signal and the noise Who is Nate Silver? Nathaniel Read   " Nate "   Silver   (born January 13, 1978) is an American   statistician   and   writer   who analyzes   baseball   and elections. He is currently the editor-in-chief of   ESPN's   FiveThirtyEight   and a Special Correspondent for   ABC News.  Silver first gained public recognition for developing   PECOTA ,   a system for forecasting the performance and career development of   Major League Baseball   players, which he sold to and then managed for   Baseball Prospectus   from 2003 to 2009.

Will there be another market crash in 2017? The unlucky 7 Whenever there is a year ending with 7, the stock market will collapse and have a crisis. For example, the name for the   1987   stock market crisis is Black Monday. Interest parity arbitrage trading and currency war fueled the   Asian Crisis   in   1997 . It involves borrowing a cheap currency with low yields and investing in a stable currency with higher yields to earn spread income, known as  positive carry.  Hence the name,  carry trades.

Forecasting or predicting the market movement Sometimes I have been asked by friends on how well the market or certain stocks perform in coming months or what will be the direction of index moving towards in next year or so.  Even in every investment seminars, one may notice that the most question people like to ask those investment “ Gurus “ will be “ how do you think the prospect of STI index in 20XX ? or What do you think about the performance of the Bank / O&G / property sector in the next few months?