Showing posts from 2022

Market Update : World Major Stock Market Regression Line

Most of the world stock markets ended lower in the 3rd Quarter of 2022, as concern about rising interest rate ( FED increased the FFR by another 0.75% in Sep and indicated that they going to increase the rate by another 1.25% by the end of 2022), persistently and stubbornly high inflation , increasing geopolitical tensions (blew up of Nord Stream 1&2 pipelines , the annexation of 4 Ukraine territories ), the energy crisis in Europe, the collapse of UK Bond market after the government announced the new tax cut and of course the continuous of struggling economy situations in China ( low PMI, struggling property market, no improvement of economic activities with strict Zero Covid policy ). Commodities prices lost momentum in view of a possible ( or already) world economic recession. After pumping trillions of dollars of liquidity into the market in the past decades, the world central bank is facing all the above, most unprecedented challenges in recent world economic history, guess

Portfolio & Dividends Update : 3rd Qtr 2022

Wow, time flies !! we are in the last month of the third quarter of 2022 and I am sure all of us are experiencing a very different year in 2022. The market is full of F.U.D ( Fear /Uncertainty / Doubt) and so far we can see that it is very volatile, I have seen my portfolio up by almost 11% in early this year and tanked to more than -3% after the Russian-Ukraine war broke out in end Feb. Now my portfolio is up by only 3.1% YTD ( including dividends), so you may notice that most of the gain came from dividends. All major economy ( or block) seems to have their own set of problems. For China, the main issues still are the slowing down of the economy due to the crackdown in the Tech sector and the cooling down of property investment. China's government is trying to boost the economy by increasing government spending on infrastructure and encouraging investment in sectors like New Energy / EV  / Tech ( IC & Chips design and manufacturing ) etc, but as I mentioned before, with th

"Davis Double Play ": Mr. Market & Asset Bubbles- Part 2

 I blogged about the concept of " Davis Double Play " ( here ) and explained that there are two very important components in determining the index of stock markets i.e P (Index)= EPS x PE Now, after the start of QT, we continue to see the market is adjusting to the "market expectation" of PE and compressing the PE to a more reasonable level. More and more data points showed that the US economy is slowing down from " Real Retail Sales, Housing Starts, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Empire State Manufacturing,  etc.." ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update   < Sources:> With such a high inflation data, the Consumer Sentiment by the University of Michigan also at a level never seen after GFC( Global Finance Crisis ), now is much lower than during the Covid-19 pandemic time. University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment  (UMCSENT) It seems that the US economy heading towards recession is "inevitable" with FED turning more &q
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