Look out for Outlook in 2017

image credit to the straitstimes.com

This might be my last blog post in 2016 and at this point of time, is very common to see many articles appeared in newspaper or magazine on peoples ( or so-called experts/economist) writing about “Outlook “ for stocks market, property market, economy, industrial, sectors etc…

If you key in the “ outlook 2017 “ in Google, you will get 132 mil results about this topic !! Since the ancient world or mankind history, we like to do prediction and lookout for something which may affect our life. People have always yearned to see into the future, to peek around the corner and make sense of what’s going on.

image credit to google.com

Nobody, neither the experts nor us amateurs have the least idea what is going to happen with the economy in the future… I don’t think the economists really know BUT since this is really a BIG business in doing such forecast,,, if your forecast turns out to be right!

The ability to predict trends has grown over the centuries (by building very complex modelling) but not the accuracy. Very often, not many economists would beg to differ that the complex mathematical models they employ in an attempt to forecast the future is unscientific and the futility in trying to predict the upticks and downturns of the economy.

Most of the time, as a reader , we also try to search and filter out what we wanted to read and confirm our “subconscious prediction “ on any issues or event, this kind of “ confirmation bias “ will lead us to react according to what we have read and hear.

Predicting the future is difficult and beware the words of “ This time is different “!

Top 5 failed economic predictions :

The Great Depression
In 1929, Irvin Fisher wrongly predicted stock market prices were at a high plateau. A week later the stock market crashed, causing global ramifications. It remained bottomed out until 1932.

The Japanese car industry
In 1969, BusinessWeek stated that Japan’s car industry wouldn’t carve a share in the market. Today, Japanese car manufacturers account for 36 per cent of the total US car market.

The Soviet economy
In 1989, Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Samuelson said the Soviet economy is proof that socialist command can function and even thrive. Two years later, the Soviet economy collapsed.

The ‘Dot Com’ bubble
Many high profile companies went into bankruptcy, including MCI WorldCom, after initially being thought to excel in early 2000.

The Dow Jones also fell to an all-time low.

The 2008 financial crisis
Before 2008, many economists had an optimistic outlook for the oncoming years, growth was steady and inflation was under control. Subprime mortgage rates fell, and the rest is history.

The latest forecast :

image credit to masterseanchan.com

80% Stock Market Crash To Strike in 2017, Economist Warns

·         BY JL YASTINE

·         December 28, 2016

Several noted economists and distinguished investors are warning of a stock market crash.

Jim Rogers, who founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros, went apocalyptic when he said, “A $68 trillion ‘Biblical’ collapse is poised to wipe out millions of Americans.”

Mark Faber, Dr Doom himself, recently told CNBC that “investors are on the Titanic” and stocks are about to “endure a gut-wrenching drop that would rival the greatest crashes in stock market history.”

And the prophetic economist Andrew Smithers warns, “U.S. stocks are now about 80% overvalued.”

You may read the full story here :

In any case, if above prediction going to happen in 2017, please don’t blame “ Samsung Notes 7 or iPhone 7 “ as any future event strike by “ random “. You may read the story about this “here “.

Instead of worrying about the market crash in 2017, maybe one should prepare for the worst by setting aside enough “ emergency fund “ in case anything happens that affecting our normal income flow or having enough “ war chest “ to capitalize the price adjustment during the crisis.

Wishing all  A Very Happy and Prosperous 2017 !!

May The Year 2017 Bring for You….Happiness, Success and filled with Peace,
Hope & Togetherness of your Family & Friends….

Cheers !!

Quote Of The Day :

"Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future."

--Nils Bohr, Nobel laureate in Physics