"About the only certainty in the stock market is that, over the long haul, overperformance turns into underperformance and vice versa. Is there a pattern to this movement? Let's apply some simple regression analysis (see footnote below) to the question.
Below is a chart of the S&P Composite stretching back to 1871 based on the real (inflation-adjusted) monthly average of daily closes. We're using a semi-log scale to equalize vertical distances for the same percentage change regardless of the index price range.
The regression trendline drawn through the data clarifies the secular pattern of variance from the trend — those multi-year periods when the market trades above and below trend. That regression slope, incidentally, represents an annualized growth rate of 1.88%."
Every dog has his day !STI rebounded strongly in 1st Qtr 2021 and outperformed most of the regional index.
With sectors rotation from growth (TECH ) to value stocks, STI can finally and proudly rebut those calling it as "Sick" Times Index. But since this is just 1st Qtr of 2021 and hope the momentum would continue throughout the year.
For longer perspective, STI still moving below long term mean level and almost unchanged as of 11 years ago on 1 Apr 2011 at around 3172. If you are investing STI ETF for the past 11 years , your returns may be just the dividend yield of around 3+%, barely beat the inflation , may be.
Hopefully those cyclical and value stocks like Big 3 banks / Jardine C&C /HK Land / YZJ/ Wilmar/ Keppel Corp/SembCorp Ind etc will be able to help to lift the index to higher level in coming quarters , of course the companies will need to show better earning results with improving economic situation.
Overall FTSE ST REIT index is quite stable and moving along the mean level. I guess the hot topic for property and REIT last month was the privatization of property arm from Capital Land and separate it to a new entity to concentrate on asset management and holding of some REITs + hospitality asset.
Below is a more detail and better explanation on the whole restructuring process from FinancialHorse.com:
I actually quite like the idea of CLIM which is similar to ARA Asset Management before it been privatized in 2017 where I made almost 30% overall including dividend in investing in ARA Asset Management. I guess the idea of separating the property development and asset management is what market ( or overall SG Inventors) wanted.
I think most of us ( SG investors) like to invest for income / dividend , the new CLIM will have assets like REITs which generate stable and recurring income and also a property management where the fees / income is more stable and predictable. Temasek just take out the property development units which the revenue/profit is more bumpy and given what the market wanted to have it i.e the CLIM type of biz model.
Although we know that the dividend yield for CLIM will be lower than REITs but as mentioned by the CFO, there will be "growth" factor in this company with some of the mature assets can be recycled into REITs and also hopefully the NAV for some of their PE fund will increase eventually.
Hence, I did some small adjustment to my portfolio in reducing % of my ARA LOGOS and split the fund into Capital Land & Ascendas Ind REIT. I have been eying and targeting REITs with DC biz for quite some times but since the valuation is high and I just wait for the opportunity to come. With recent pull backed on some of the DC biz REITs by almost -20% , I have decided to switch.
STE and Mrs. have already registered with MOH for our Covid-19 vaccination and I hope more and more peoples will get their vaccine soon when more vaccination centres to be opened by mid-April.
Getting up early and heading out for a morning walk became our daily routine even during the lockdown period. Most studies show that a 20-30 minutes or more walk is good for our mental health, especially during these "partial lockdown" periods where people are getting stressed with less travelling and social activities. Human beings are a "social species" that interact/communicate and live close to each other, imagine being " restricted " from interacting and reducing social activities for the past 1 1/2 years, the mental stress and emotional effect is enormous and may cause "depression" easily. "Jalan-Jalan" At Parks & Reservoirs- Photos Sharing The sudden change in the way we do our work like "work from home " also create some problems and psychological effect/impact when we suddenly have more time at home and have to juggle between kids and works at the same time ( for those who have children). A simple and effective
“The big money is not in the buying or selling, but in the waiting.” - Charlie Munger “The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.” – Warren Buffett “Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it earns it. He who doesn’t pay it.” – Albert Einstein “If you do the math, and think about it in any long-term way, the people who do well, are the people who compound over and over again. Compound every year. Don’t try and get rich quick. Try to get a decent return and keep doing it.” - Tom Steyer "The effects of compounding even moderate returns over many years are compelling , if not downright mind-boggling." - Seth Klarman "A mere 3% annualised edge will produce a 2.4-fold advantage over a 30 year period - the salient lesson that compounding teaches - the power of a long runway." - Allan Mecham “Remember the power of compounding. You don’t need to stret
If you are one of the investors investing in the CHN/HKG tech sector, I am sure you would have felt the pinch as the index (iShares Hang Seng TECH ETF (3067.HK) is down by -37% from the all-time high of $22.98 to $14.40 as of writing this article and it was down by -44% at one point. The prospect of these China tech stocks will be challenging, and I don’t think we should expect any immediate rebound from this sector and is going to be volatile since the crackdown from the regulatory on “ anti-monopoly” (Baba/Tencent) to “data security “(Didi) and the recent “education” (TAL/ New Oriental) . We have seen the share price plunged by more than 30-50% and some education stocks almost wipe out with dropping of more -90%. As usual, we will see two different points of view with regards to this tech crackdown and correction, some said it is just a temporary trend and the regulatory is just trying to target some / certain sub-sectors within the tech sector and enact some control or tighte
Pursuant to my previous blog post about market cycles and “ 4 Seasons Investing “, there is another way of explaining the market cycles i.e “ Investment Clock “. The idea of an investment clock has been around for decades and it captures two very important things in investment : 1) Business and Market move in a cycle 2) No sector or asset class exist in isolation or can sustain without being affected by business cycles.
< Edited : 17 May 2018> Wow! another Non-renounceable Preferential Offering from Manulife US REIT ( here ) "The Issue Price of US$0.865 per New Unit represents a discount of approximately 7.9% to the volume-weighted average price of US$0.9391 per Unit for trades in the Units done on Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited (the “SGX-ST”) for the full Market Day on 15 May 2018." I still prefer the previous rights of "UNDERWRITTEN AND RENOUNCEABLE RIGHTS ISSUE, a 21.6% discount " ... but it seems that the " Non-Renounceable Rights " will be the new trend now. ... image credit to mrbachelorinvestment.blogspot.com < First published : 14 May 2018 > Recently, it seems that more and more companies are choosing to issue “ Non-renounceable Rights ” in an equity fundraising activities instead of “ Renounceable Rights “ . My friend “ B “from “ A Path to Forever Financial Freedom (3Fs) had just written a good