"About the only certainty in the stock market is that, over the long haul, overperformance turns into underperformance and vice versa. Is there a pattern to this movement? Let's apply some simple regression analysis (see footnote below) to the question.
Below is a chart of the S&P Composite stretching back to 1871 based on the real (inflation-adjusted) monthly average of daily closes. We're using a semi-log scale to equalize vertical distances for the same percentage change regardless of the index price range.
The regression trendline drawn through the data clarifies the secular pattern of variance from the trend — those multi-year periods when the market trades above and below trend. That regression slope, incidentally, represents an annualized growth rate of 1.88%."
Every dog has his day !STI rebounded strongly in 1st Qtr 2021 and outperformed most of the regional index.
With sectors rotation from growth (TECH ) to value stocks, STI can finally and proudly rebut those calling it as "Sick" Times Index. But since this is just 1st Qtr of 2021 and hope the momentum would continue throughout the year.
For longer perspective, STI still moving below long term mean level and almost unchanged as of 11 years ago on 1 Apr 2011 at around 3172. If you are investing STI ETF for the past 11 years , your returns may be just the dividend yield of around 3+%, barely beat the inflation , may be.
Hopefully those cyclical and value stocks like Big 3 banks / Jardine C&C /HK Land / YZJ/ Wilmar/ Keppel Corp/SembCorp Ind etc will be able to help to lift the index to higher level in coming quarters , of course the companies will need to show better earning results with improving economic situation.
Overall FTSE ST REIT index is quite stable and moving along the mean level. I guess the hot topic for property and REIT last month was the privatization of property arm from Capital Land and separate it to a new entity to concentrate on asset management and holding of some REITs + hospitality asset.
Below is a more detail and better explanation on the whole restructuring process from FinancialHorse.com:
I actually quite like the idea of CLIM which is similar to ARA Asset Management before it been privatized in 2017 where I made almost 30% overall including dividend in investing in ARA Asset Management. I guess the idea of separating the property development and asset management is what market ( or overall SG Inventors) wanted.
I think most of us ( SG investors) like to invest for income / dividend , the new CLIM will have assets like REITs which generate stable and recurring income and also a property management where the fees / income is more stable and predictable. Temasek just take out the property development units which the revenue/profit is more bumpy and given what the market wanted to have it i.e the CLIM type of biz model.
Although we know that the dividend yield for CLIM will be lower than REITs but as mentioned by the CFO, there will be "growth" factor in this company with some of the mature assets can be recycled into REITs and also hopefully the NAV for some of their PE fund will increase eventually.
Hence, I did some small adjustment to my portfolio in reducing % of my ARA LOGOS and split the fund into Capital Land & Ascendas Ind REIT. I have been eying and targeting REITs with DC biz for quite some times but since the valuation is high and I just wait for the opportunity to come. With recent pull backed on some of the DC biz REITs by almost -20% , I have decided to switch.
STE and Mrs. have already registered with MOH for our Covid-19 vaccination and I hope more and more peoples will get their vaccine soon when more vaccination centres to be opened by mid-April.
If you are one of the investors investing in the CHN/HKG tech sector, I am sure you would have felt the pinch as the index (iShares Hang Seng TECH ETF (3067.HK) is down by -37% from the all-time high of $22.98 to $14.40 as of writing this article and it was down by -44% at one point. The prospect of these China tech stocks will be challenging, and I don’t think we should expect any immediate rebound from this sector and is going to be volatile since the crackdown from the regulatory on “ anti-monopoly” (Baba/Tencent) to “data security “(Didi) and the recent “education” (TAL/ New Oriental) . We have seen the share price plunged by more than 30-50% and some education stocks almost wipe out with dropping of more -90%. As usual, we will see two different points of view with regards to this tech crackdown and correction, some said it is just a temporary trend and the regulatory is just trying to target some / certain sub-sectors within the tech sector and enact some control or tighte
"Close -Open, Open -Close ", yes, this is what we are facing now with the new measure of moving back to P2HA ( Phase 2 Heightened Alert) since 22 July. I know everyone seems "frustrate " and a bit "tiring" of such "on-off" tightening and social distancing measures, including me. STE and Mrs will be not able to go to the park for our morning walk and sit down at a coffee shop to enjoy our breakfast, as usual, we could only walk at our neighbourhood park and "ta-pao" the breakfast back home. But, hey! we are facing a totally new virus that is very "virulent " and an unprecedented pandemic. We are still searching for the "best way or path" to learn how to live with this " naughty and deadly " virus. Is like searching for the best "investment strategy", we learn by "trial and error ", we fall into some "pitfall" while learning and learn from the mistakes. We are also chasing with
Different Attitude Towards The World Of Crypto: China vs the US It is quite obvious that China ( or even India and some other countries ) has a different approach towards Crypto vs the US. Those countries are imposing a ban or restricting crypto trading and mining while the US is just trying to regulate Crypto. Why? " 水很深 " Just look at the trading volume and value of Crypto daily and remember most of the trading is done in the US market and transacted in USD. At the highest point, total market capitalization for Crypto was more than $ 2 Trillion in Apr 2021 and represent about 17% of the global total Gold value. Again, if you look at the below chart, the highest daily trading value for crypto could reach as high as $3.18 Billion , even at this moment, the daily trading value is more than $450 mil. Just imagine how the US major financial institution like GS / JP Morgan trying to promote the crypto through ETF/structural products / derivatives/options
Value is a better measure for investors while price matters more to traders We, the so-called “value investors” often find ourselves trying to resolve the differences between a stock's value and its price. If you have spent any time investing in the stock market, you will know that value and price are two different measures arrived at by different means but most of the time we might confuse and mix up “price as value”.
< Edited : 17 May 2018> Wow! another Non-renounceable Preferential Offering from Manulife US REIT ( here ) "The Issue Price of US$0.865 per New Unit represents a discount of approximately 7.9% to the volume-weighted average price of US$0.9391 per Unit for trades in the Units done on Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited (the “SGX-ST”) for the full Market Day on 15 May 2018." I still prefer the previous rights of "UNDERWRITTEN AND RENOUNCEABLE RIGHTS ISSUE, a 21.6% discount " ... but it seems that the " Non-Renounceable Rights " will be the new trend now. ... image credit to mrbachelorinvestment.blogspot.com < First published : 14 May 2018 > Recently, it seems that more and more companies are choosing to issue “ Non-renounceable Rights ” in an equity fundraising activities instead of “ Renounceable Rights “ . My friend “ B “from “ A Path to Forever Financial Freedom (3Fs) had just written a good