"About the only certainty in the stock market is that, over the long haul, overperformance turns into underperformance and vice versa. Is there a pattern to this movement? Let's apply some simple regression analysis (see footnote below) to the question.
Below is a chart of the S&P Composite stretching back to 1871 based on the real (inflation-adjusted) monthly average of daily closes. We're using a semi-log scale to equalize vertical distances for the same percentage change regardless of the index price range.
The regression trendline drawn through the data clarifies the secular pattern of variance from the trend — those multi-year periods when the market trades above and below trend. That regression slope, incidentally, represents an annualized growth rate of 1.88%."
Every dog has his day !STI rebounded strongly in 1st Qtr 2021 and outperformed most of the regional index.
With sectors rotation from growth (TECH ) to value stocks, STI can finally and proudly rebut those calling it as "Sick" Times Index. But since this is just 1st Qtr of 2021 and hope the momentum would continue throughout the year.
For longer perspective, STI still moving below long term mean level and almost unchanged as of 11 years ago on 1 Apr 2011 at around 3172. If you are investing STI ETF for the past 11 years , your returns may be just the dividend yield of around 3+%, barely beat the inflation , may be.
Hopefully those cyclical and value stocks like Big 3 banks / Jardine C&C /HK Land / YZJ/ Wilmar/ Keppel Corp/SembCorp Ind etc will be able to help to lift the index to higher level in coming quarters , of course the companies will need to show better earning results with improving economic situation.
Overall FTSE ST REIT index is quite stable and moving along the mean level. I guess the hot topic for property and REIT last month was the privatization of property arm from Capital Land and separate it to a new entity to concentrate on asset management and holding of some REITs + hospitality asset.
Below is a more detail and better explanation on the whole restructuring process from FinancialHorse.com:
I actually quite like the idea of CLIM which is similar to ARA Asset Management before it been privatized in 2017 where I made almost 30% overall including dividend in investing in ARA Asset Management. I guess the idea of separating the property development and asset management is what market ( or overall SG Inventors) wanted.
I think most of us ( SG investors) like to invest for income / dividend , the new CLIM will have assets like REITs which generate stable and recurring income and also a property management where the fees / income is more stable and predictable. Temasek just take out the property development units which the revenue/profit is more bumpy and given what the market wanted to have it i.e the CLIM type of biz model.
Although we know that the dividend yield for CLIM will be lower than REITs but as mentioned by the CFO, there will be "growth" factor in this company with some of the mature assets can be recycled into REITs and also hopefully the NAV for some of their PE fund will increase eventually.
Hence, I did some small adjustment to my portfolio in reducing % of my ARA LOGOS and split the fund into Capital Land & Ascendas Ind REIT. I have been eying and targeting REITs with DC biz for quite some times but since the valuation is high and I just wait for the opportunity to come. With recent pull backed on some of the DC biz REITs by almost -20% , I have decided to switch.
STE and Mrs. have already registered with MOH for our Covid-19 vaccination and I hope more and more peoples will get their vaccine soon when more vaccination centres to be opened by mid-April.
One of the reader PM me about the remaining 20% of my portfolio which I didn’t highlight or put up in my previous update on Dividend & Portfolio Update :1 st Qtr 2021 ( here ) because I think those are quite small positions with just 20% of total value in another 30 stocks. In this quick update, I will just attach the chart of my total holding plus small change in my portfolio composition. I have added another Tech /growth stock in my portfolio – JD.com , another giant E-commerce ++ other than Alibaba , after seeing the stock dropped by around -29% from the ATH (all time high) achieved in Feb 2021. Since I have both giant China E-commerce company (with combine market share of more than 70% ) , okie, either one success , I am also happy. But why not PDD – Pinduoduo Inc . (which dropped more than -43%) and with the remaining 7.5% market share. Of course, we know that PDD’s growth story is more promising where its’ active user had surpassed Alibaba recently but both (vs Alib
Market continued the upward trend and rebounded strongly in 1 st Qtr. 2021 with STI Index up by around +9%. With improving economic situation and more good news on economy recovery and the progress on vaccination, “old economy “stocks like bank, Oil & Energy, Consumer staples are having a good run recently while the Tech or growth stocks having a pullback due to increase in US 10 Years Treasury Yield. As I mentioned in my previous blogpost ( Volatile Market: A New Normal ), the pullback might just be a temporary “dip” in the market as market still being “flooded” with so much of liquidity, money just moved around from one sector to another sector or so called "sector rotation". Increasing 10 years bond yield (or interest rate in general) might also be the good news for banking sector as this may improve their NIM while FED remain committed to keep the short-term rate "ultra low" for foreseeable future. Is Market Valuation Still Cheap Now? I am no
泡沫頂端？世界首富換馬斯克 比特幣莊家都是海盗 20210108《楊世光在金錢爆 < source & Video credit to : > 《楊世光在金錢爆》 Bitcoin rally may be the 'mother of all bubbles' says BofA < source: CNN.com> Bitcoin may still surge and keep hitting another all time high ... till $200k , nobody knows as market is flooded with massive liquidity and irrational , as always . Those invested in Bitcoin will just need to be wary that don't be left without a chair when the "music stops" . Cheers ! Disclaimer The information contained within this blog is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to substitute for obtaining professional financial advice as the writer is not a certified financial adviser. You are responsible for your personal finances and should not rely on this site or anyone else to make the final decision for you and please do your own due diligent in using information from this blog.
World stock market continued it strings of volatile trading sessions recently when 10 Years Treasury Notes hitting 1.5%, a sign that FED is going to increase interest rate in near term due to higher “inflation expectation “post pandemic as economic is going to restore back to Pre-covid 19 level. <Image credit :GuruFocus.com> For me, it seems that the yield curve is just returning to normal level / pattern with upward slope and higher rate for long term treasury notes as compared to exceptional “ Inverter Yield Curve “during the pandemic. The short-term rate (1-5 years) remain extremely low and accommodative as mentioned by FED. The 10 Years Treasury rate mainly use to determine the mortgage rate and I think is quite healthy if rate is a bit higher than short-term as to indicate the risk on long term mortgage loan, also to avoid more speculative move in housing market. I am not sure if this increase of 10 Years treasury note will benefit the banking sector in near