A Quick Update and Photos Sharing
Market sentiment continues to improve with good news from vaccine approval by US FDA and hope of more stimulus package. STI has rebounded strongly from 2400+ in early Nov to above 2800+ now, moving close to -0.5 SD level.
I don’t have any buy or sell since the last update but some positions change due to price movement, e.g Public Bank move up by 7 positions due to price appreciation by almost +17% after it announced bonus issue of 4 for 1. Although this is quite irrational as from financial and fundamental’s perspective, everything remains the same, it just that the price may become cheaper after you are getting more shares and it may also improve company trading liquidity since more shares will be available. But investors seem got excited with such news, ummmm ....so maybe DBS / UOB should follow suit to have bonus issue and we may suddenly see price increase by 10+% with just a “magic announcement “ !! :D
We always emphasize that investing is about “probability “ and not a certainty. With such a strong rebound from the bottom recently, is the odd still on our side if we are buying at this level.
Well, as below illustrated, the probability of market-moving above this level still quite favourable if you are a long term investors ( except FTSE ST Reit which has around 46% chance). Of course, this doesn’t reflect the performance of the individual stock as we are talking about Index and the whole market movement.
The probability that price stays above current level base on past trend:
FTSE ST REIT ( 46%)
STI ( 83% )
KLSE ( 86% )
HSI ( 61% )
FTSE 100 ( 72% )
Stock is not as cheap as it was in Mar 2020 but also not as that expensive base on long term trend and if you believe that we / economy may recover and emerge strongly from Covid -19 pandemic.
Stay Safe and Stay Healthy !! as mentioned by our PM in his speech yesterday …”
We are seeing light at the end of the tunnel: PM Lee < source:straitstimes.com>
As vaccination of the whole population may take times and also logistic challenges for other countries, some sectors or industries may still need more times to recover fully from this pandemic, the recovery may be “uneven and slow “ among different industries …as what been projected by MAS.
Ok, enough talking about investing, now allow me to post some photos taken during our “Jalan-Jalan and walk in the park “ recently. :D