七线谱 : HSBC and HKG Land



image credit to mothership.sg




Millions of people have taken to the streets of Hong Kong over the past few months as protests against the controversial extradition Bill grew into violent clashes between police and protesters.
What began as a targeted protest against a controversial extradition bill in June has transformed into what feels like a battle for the future of Hong Kong. While things still unfold for the event, but it has caused billions of dollars as many businesses been disrupted, billions worth of IPOs been scraped and conference & trade fair have been postponed or cancelled.





Hong Kong stock market ( Hang Seng Index) plunged more than -14% since the protest started in early Mar 2019. While the market may still far from –1SD like the one happen in 2002/ 2009 or even the latest 2016 ( quite close -1SD), some stocks which have an asset or revenue mostly derived from HKG, the stock price already hitting the lowest level since 2008/09 GFC.






HKG Land



One of the stock which is quite popular among investors i.e Hong Kong Land which offer a discount to NAV of more than -65%

Of course, there is a reason for such discounted value and worried because more than 75% of the gross asset by location is in Hong Kong, if things getting worse or the protest turns more violence, the asset value will be affected as well.















HSBC

Another stock which is favourite among local investors i.e HSBC is also offering a dividend yield of close to 7% ( based on last year’s dividend paid out). The stock price for HSBC plummeted by around -18% since the starts of protest. Again reason being close to 58% of the profit came from Hong Kong according to their AR 2018.

By looking at the severity of business being affected due to the recent protest, it is hard to make a judgement on how much profitability or bottom line will have impacted eventually.





Will you buy HKG Land with 65% discounted to NAV or invest in HSBC with 7% dividend yield (payout quarterly like DBS ) in the current situation, where things still uncertain and profit or asset value may go south if the situation turns worse and ugly?

Some may see it as opportunities but some may not, please DYODD if you wanted to invest in stocks related to Hong Kong Market as things continue to unfold, for good or bad, nobody knows.


Cheers !!



Quote Of The Day:


"If you have trouble imagining a 20% loss in the stock market, you shouldn't be in stocks." John C. Bogle









Disclaimer:
“All stocks mentioned in this blog is provided to you for general information only and does not constitute a recommendation, an offer or solicitation to buy or sell. Please do your own due diligence before acting on any information given at your own risk.”






Comments

  1. Hi KW/Chew/John

    As request , have forwarded the sample file with some explanation on how to plot the regression chart. Also as mentioned , the regression line is to capture to long term market trend and valuation ( to some extend ) not to predict the future direction and definitely not suitable for short term trend reading or trading.

    Hope it is useful , please feel free to contact me if you have any further inquiry.

    Cheers !! :D

    PS: For those who are interested in how to plot this " 七线谱" as reference other than doing fundamental analysis , please feel free to contact me @ "stesg50@gmail.com"

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hi Raymond. What do you think of Fu Yu's closure of operation in Shanghai? Im also a shareholder of Fu Yu. Want to hear more opinions about this particular stock but seems like it is not well-known yet.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi,
      Yes, saw the notice of asset transferring from Shanghai to Suzhou, I guess is good move as China's operations is affected by trade war and in declining trend. As mentioned in their filing to SGX , is more on cost rationalization and also since Shuzou is close to Shangha, it may serve the customer or market well without any problem.
      Yup, I like the strong balance sheet and dividend for this company, as recent quarter seen they have increased their dividend pay out with better GPM ... hope the trend may continue.
      Cheers!!

      You may find the analyst report here in SG Investors.com

      https://sginvestors.io/sgx/stock/f13-fu-yu/analyst-report

      Delete
  3. Hi Adrian/Jennifer / Roger/Lawrence-L/RayN/Shinji/Yaruzi/K-kin/ TJ/ HNN

    As request , have forwarded you all the file on how to plot the "regression line "...hope it is useful.
    Please feel free to contact me if you have any further inquiry.

    Cheers !! :D

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hi YHLee/Leon/YPA/LimWK/JingleBell/KWLow/WW

    As request , have forwarded you all the file on how to plot the "regression line "...hope it is useful.
    Please feel free to contact me if you have any further inquiry.

    Cheers !! :D

    ReplyDelete

Post a Comment

Related Posts Plugin for WordPress, Blogger...

Labels

Show more

This Month's Top Blog Posts

2nd Qtr 2021 : Portfolio & Dividend Update

Crisis = Danger + Opportunity? (危机 = 危险+ 机会)

Dow Jones 125 Years : Investing For The Long Term

US vs China : Divergence of Monetary and Fiscal Policies

Investing in 2.96% p.a AAA Bond