STE's Stocks Investing Journey

Hi everyone, this is STE here and welcome back to my investing journey. In this post, I’d like to talk about two popular ideas that often sound smart but can quietly mislead investors: Opportunity Cost and Yield on Cost. Both concepts have value in theory, but in practice, they can distort how we view our investments , anchoring us to the past instead of focusing on the future. Let’s unpack these two concepts and see why looking backward can hurt long-term performance more than help. The Rear-View Mirror Problem in Investing Many investors love to use “ opportunity cost” and “yield on cost ” as proof of how well or poorly they’ve done. They look at the past , the missed winners, or the dividends growing from an old purchase and feel either regret or pride. But investing is not a museum of memories; it’s a living, evolving process. The market constantly changes, businesses evolve, and capital must keep flowing to where the future returns are highest. The biggest danger comes when we le...

Today, I’d like to take a deep dive into the fascinating world of global finance and explore how global liquidity has reshaped the stock market since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Over the past decade and a half, central banks around the world have been pumping money into the financial system, almost as if cash could grow on trees.  This wave of liquidity has changed the way markets move, fueling long bull runs and altering the nature of bear markets. In this post, we’ll unpack what this “ flood of money” really means, how it has transformed investor behavior, and why understanding liquidity has become essential to making sense of today’s financial landscape and what does that mean for bear markets, investor confidence, and the long game? Liquidity: The Market’s Lifeblood Let’s start with the basics. When we talk about liquidity in the context of global markets, we’re talking about the cash (or near-cash) that central banks like the US Federal Reserve (FED), European Central...

 Hi, everyone ! It’s me again, back with another deep dive into the fascinating world of stock markets and investing. Today, we’re exploring a concept that’s like the heartbeat of the stock market : regression to the mean . Think of it as the market’s way of finding balance, much like the ebb and flow of tides along seashores or the predictable shift of seasons. Markets go up, they go down, they swing wildly at times, but over the long haul, they tend to settle back to a baseline (or so-called regression to the mean) . Let’s unpack this idea, explore its historical roots, and determine how we can apply it to make more informed investment decisions. What Is Mean Reversion, and How Do Investors Use It?   <source:Investopedia.com>   How Applying Regression To The Mean Can Improve Investment Performance   <source:Forbes.com> The Cyclical Nature of Markets   Markets, like so many things in life, move in cycles. Picture the economy, credit flows, o...

Investing is a game of numbers, logic, and patience. It’s about understanding businesses, assessing their potential, and making calculated decisions to grow your wealth over time. Yet, too often, I see investors letting their political beliefs cloud their judgment, swaying their decisions in ways that can lead to missed opportunities or costly mistakes. Whether you lean towards democracy, socialism, or any other ideology, investing should remain apolitical. It’s about seeing the world as it is, not as you wish it to be. In this piece, I’ll dive into why separating your political views from your investment decisions is crucial, how policies—whether from communist or democratic systems—can create opportunities in the market, and why a long-term, fundamentals-focused approach always wins. Let’s get started. The Political Noise and Market Reactions Politics has a way of stirring emotions. Whether it’s a fiery speech from a world leader or a sudden policy shift, the markets often react wi...

 Hi everyone, fellow value Investors,is me again , back with another deep dive into the wild world of stocks. Today, I want to take you on a journey to explore something that’s been buzzing in my mind— why the stock market isn’t just a linear game of numbers and predictions, but rather a living, breathing *Complex Adaptive System* (CAS) . Think of it like a bustling ecosystem, constantly evolving, adapting, and reacting to the chaos around it. And what better example to unpack this than the current US stock market, especially the tech and AI sectors, which have been riding a rollercoaster of global capital inflows over the past two years? What is a Complex Adaptive System?   <source: wikipedia.com> The Non-Linear Nature of Markets Forget the textbooks that try to boil the stock market down to simple equations or predictable trends with lot's of jargons and technical analysis. The reality is far messier,and that’s what makes it exciting! A Complex Adaptive System is all a...

 Hi ! everyone, it’s time for my September 2025 portfolio and dividend update, as most of my HK/CHN stocks have already announced their 1st half 2025 results by the end of August, and I’m excited to share the latest developments in my investment journey. The markets have been a wild ride this year, with some pleasant surprises and a few sobering reminders of the need for patience. Before diving into the numbers, I want to take a moment to reflect on some timeless wisdom from one of my investment heroes, Howard Marks, whose latest memo, *The Calculus of Value*, offers a masterclass in navigating today’s lofty markets. After that, I’ll break down my portfolio performance, dividend updates, and some thoughts on the road ahead. Let’s get started!     Howard Marks and *The Calculus of Value*: A Lesson in Stock Valuation <Link>   I’ve always admired Howard Marks, the co-founder of Oaktree Capital, for his ability to distil and digest complex market dynamic...