STE's Stocks Investing Journey

 Hi, everyone ! It’s me again, back with another deep dive into the fascinating world of stock markets and investing. Today, we’re exploring a concept that’s like the heartbeat of the stock market : regression to the mean . Think of it as the market’s way of finding balance, much like the ebb and flow of tides along seashores or the predictable shift of seasons. Markets go up, they go down, they swing wildly at times, but over the long haul, they tend to settle back to a baseline (or so-called regression to the mean) . Let’s unpack this idea, explore its historical roots, and determine how we can apply it to make more informed investment decisions. What Is Mean Reversion, and How Do Investors Use It?   <source:Investopedia.com>   How Applying Regression To The Mean Can Improve Investment Performance   <source:Forbes.com> The Cyclical Nature of Markets   Markets, like so many things in life, move in cycles. Picture the economy, credit flows, o...

Investing is a game of numbers, logic, and patience. It’s about understanding businesses, assessing their potential, and making calculated decisions to grow your wealth over time. Yet, too often, I see investors letting their political beliefs cloud their judgment, swaying their decisions in ways that can lead to missed opportunities or costly mistakes. Whether you lean towards democracy, socialism, or any other ideology, investing should remain apolitical. It’s about seeing the world as it is, not as you wish it to be. In this piece, I’ll dive into why separating your political views from your investment decisions is crucial, how policies—whether from communist or democratic systems—can create opportunities in the market, and why a long-term, fundamentals-focused approach always wins. Let’s get started. The Political Noise and Market Reactions Politics has a way of stirring emotions. Whether it’s a fiery speech from a world leader or a sudden policy shift, the markets often react wi...

 Hi everyone, fellow value Investors,is me again , back with another deep dive into the wild world of stocks. Today, I want to take you on a journey to explore something that’s been buzzing in my mind— why the stock market isn’t just a linear game of numbers and predictions, but rather a living, breathing *Complex Adaptive System* (CAS) . Think of it like a bustling ecosystem, constantly evolving, adapting, and reacting to the chaos around it. And what better example to unpack this than the current US stock market, especially the tech and AI sectors, which have been riding a rollercoaster of global capital inflows over the past two years? What is a Complex Adaptive System?   <source: wikipedia.com> The Non-Linear Nature of Markets Forget the textbooks that try to boil the stock market down to simple equations or predictable trends with lot's of jargons and technical analysis. The reality is far messier,and that’s what makes it exciting! A Complex Adaptive System is all a...

 Hi ! everyone, it’s time for my September 2025 portfolio and dividend update, as most of my HK/CHN stocks have already announced their 1st half 2025 results by the end of August, and I’m excited to share the latest developments in my investment journey. The markets have been a wild ride this year, with some pleasant surprises and a few sobering reminders of the need for patience. Before diving into the numbers, I want to take a moment to reflect on some timeless wisdom from one of my investment heroes, Howard Marks, whose latest memo, *The Calculus of Value*, offers a masterclass in navigating today’s lofty markets. After that, I’ll break down my portfolio performance, dividend updates, and some thoughts on the road ahead. Let’s get started!     Howard Marks and *The Calculus of Value*: A Lesson in Stock Valuation <Link>   I’ve always admired Howard Marks, the co-founder of Oaktree Capital, for his ability to distil and digest complex market dynamic...

 Hi! Good day, everyone. I’ve hit another milestone in my financial journey, and I’m thrilled to share that I’ve officially closed my CPF Investment Scheme (CPFIS) account . ( Also means Uncle reached 55 years old liao   😊 . Turning 55 feels like crossing a major finish line, and it’s a milestone that comes with reflection.    After years of navigating the stock market with my CPF Ordinary Account (OA) funds, I’ve walked away with a tidy 11.2% return. That’s a solid win, especially when you stack it against the CPF OA’s guaranteed 2.5% interest rate. I’m not here to brag, though, but more to reflect on what this means and why I’m cautiously waving the flag for others thinking about diving into the market with their CPF savings.   A Win, But Not Without Caveats   Let’s get one thing straight: beating the CPF OA’s 2.5% interest rate feels great, but it’s not a walk in the park. That 2.5% is a risk-free return , a cosy safety net that grows y...